BY JIM MAIN
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Climate change so far
So often people – often older blokes like me – scoff at the notion that burning fossil fuels is triggering changes in our climate. It’s worthwhile having a look at what the experts say.
It’s an old idea that increasing levels of carbon dioxide can warm the planet.
“In 1896 a Swedish scientist published a new idea. As humanity burned fossil fuels such as coal, which added carbon dioxide gas to the Earth's atmosphere, we would raise the planet's average temperature.”
So says the Australian Institute of Physics in its online article The Discovery of Global Warming.
To check it out Google “AIP history climate”.
And still a strong one.
So well understood is the science that now it’s impossible to find a reputable scientific institution that doubts it. And several studies have shown that some 97 per cent of scientists working in climate change disciplines accept the link.
NASA on its website has details of the overwhelming consensus including a joint statement by some 200 scientific institutions accepting the link between increasing greenhouse gas levels and climate change. Google “NASA consensus” to check it out.
And the Australian Academy of Science says, in relation to climate change: “The best available evidence indicates that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the main cause.”
Are carbon dioxide levels rising?
Yes, according to NASA, which says that ancient air bubbles trapped in ice allow scientists to determine what the atmosphere and climate were like in the distant past.
This shows that carbon dioxide levels are now higher than they have been at any time in the past 400,000 years. Until 1950 the concentration had not exceeded 300 parts per million (ppm) but since 1950 have increased to around 400 ppm.
Has the climate changed?
Yes, says the Bureau of Meteorology in its State of the Climate 2014:
- Australia’s mean surface air temperature has warmed by 0.9°C since 1910.
- Seven of the ten warmest years on record have occurred since 1998.
- Over the past 15 years, the frequency of very warm months has increased five-fold.
- The frequency of very cool months has declined by around a third, compared to 1951–1980.
- Sea-surface temperatures in the Australian region have warmed by 0.9°C since 1900.
Yes, says the Australian Academy of Science in its 2015 online question-and-answer website: “Earth’s climate has changed over the past century. The atmosphere and oceans have warmed, sea levels have risen, and glaciers and ice sheets have decreased in size.”
Yes, says Munich Re, one of the major worldwide re-insurers (re-insurers basically insure insurance companies) which on its website shows a strong upwards trend in the number of storms, floods, heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and bushfires between 1980 and 2010.
And yes, says the Pentagon, according to a report in October 2014 in Newsweek magazine: “… the Department of Defense has dramatically shifted its views towards climate change, and has already begun to treat the phenomenon as a significant threat to national security.”
Yes but… it is still the case that not everyone agrees.
There’s no doubt about that. Just have a look at websites like wattsupwiththat.com to see plenty of contrary views. And many prominent industry leaders regularly come out in dispute.
But the question remains: who do you trust? In whose hands would you put the future of your children and grandchildren?
