The global race for technological supremacy is shifting every day, every hour. The events of the past few weeks in AI - from announcement of the US Stargate project to DeepSeek's breakthrough - should serve as a stark warning. The belief that certain technological frontiers are insulated from competition is false. What was once seen as an unassailable lead can vanish overnight. The same fate could befall quantum computing if we fail to seize the moment.
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Quantum computing stands as the next and final frontier in computing power. The race to build the first industrially useful quantum computers will determine, by an insurmountable margin, which nation achieves technological escape velocity. It's vital for Australia's future that we - and our allies - get there first.
Small-scale quantum computers won't get us there. These systems, while useful for research, don't have the scale to solve the complex problems that will define the next century. For quantum computing to become truly useful - and to unlock the immense promise of the technology - a focus on scale is needed to enable error correction.
Just recently, the US Department of Advanced Research Projects Agency announced it had selected PsiQuantum, alongside only Microsoft, to advance to the final stage of its Utility-Scale Quantum Computing Program. It's that scale that allows the computer to solve problems that will forever remain unsolved, even by the largest AI supercomputers.
The difference between a 100-qubit prototype and a million-qubit machine is the difference between an early aircraft prototype and a Saturn IV rocket - it's an entirely different engineering challenge with fundamentally different capabilities. Sure, both airframes can fly, but their destinations couldn't be more different. While Australia's R&D base must be fortified, the real opportunity is not in research alone, but in scaling to an industrially relevant system.
The AI industry's latest upheaval has proven one thing: large language models are quickly becoming commoditised. There is no lasting advantage in model architectures or algorithms. Compute power, not just software, will dictate economic and national security in the years ahead. And when it comes to compute, there is no greater step-change on the horizon than large-scale quantum computing.
The Trump administration has recognised this reality, prioritising quantum computing as a pillar of national security strategy. The stakes couldn't be higher - whoever crosses the quantum threshold first will unlock capabilities that will shape industries, economies, and military dominance for decades. The next generation of battery storage, solar energy breakthroughs, and pharmaceutical discoveries will be dictated by quantum simulations, while today's encryption standards, which have secured global communications for decades, will be rendered obsolete in moments.
The reality is stark: only two nations have the industrial base, research leadership, and institutional commitment to deliver utility-scale quantum computing - the United States and Australia. PsiQuantum has partnered with both nations and is set to break ground on the first quantum computing system of consequence in Brisbane, bringing the vision of real, useful quantum computers within reach.
This news further cements the idea of this being Australia's SpaceX moment - a chance to vault ahead in a field that will define the next technological era. Just as SpaceX transformed the aerospace industry through bold engineering and relentless execution, Australia has the potential to be the birthplace of the first transformative quantum computer. The question now is whether we will seize this opportunity or allow others to claim the future.
This quantum frontier represents the space race of our time. Scientists and researchers across a range of critical industries are working on game-changing breakthroughs that go to the heart of our sovereign capability. In many cases, however, they have hit the walls of power and capacity that exist today in even the largest AI supercomputers, which lack the fundamental ability to run the simulations necessary to provide the breakthroughs they know are possible. An industrially useful quantum computer would unlock the gate to a stampede of innovation. This is the race we must be focused on winning, because there is no longer a significant difference between our nation's economic and national security.
We currently have the talent, the research foundations, and the geopolitical alignment with the United States to be at the forefront of this revolution. But this window won't remain open indefinitely. Hesitation would mean ceding a generational advantage to others and that could be disastrous.
- Nick Warner served as the director-general of the Office of National Intelligence (ONI) and director-general of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service 2009-2017. He is a non-executive director of PsiQuantum Australia.
