How can we be better prepared for summers like this?

For many threatened communities they are enduring the long journey of recovery from previous disasters. Australia's natural hazard risk is worsening due to climate change, increasing numbers of people living in at-risk areas and environmental degradation. In the future we will likely see widening natural hazard losses, increasing impacts on physical and mental health and rising insurance unaffordability.

The changes will result in greater demands on fire and emergency services already under pressure from worsening natural hazard risk and the need for greater investments by governments to fund reconstruction efforts and ensure a sustainable volunteer workforce.

Much has been done to enhance preparedness for bushfires since the 2019/20 Black Summer bushfires. We have advanced the Australian Fire Danger Rating System and emergency warnings to empower our communities to make informed choices. We have some of the most capable fire and emergency services in the world and invest in disaster resilience measures. But we must transform to meet the threat of more severe and frequent natural hazards. A long-term risk-based vision for disaster resilience is a must, and research has answers that we can all draw on.

We are experiencing longer and more severe bushfire seasons, with fires that are more difficult to control. Advances in technology will upscale fire service capabilities. Space-based detection and mapping technologies are already advancing as well as fire spread prediction and decision support software. Internationally, firefighting drone swarms and autonomous helicopter platforms are being developed and trialled for use in years to come.

Lessons from the Los Angles fires and research by the University of Tasmania emphasise the importance of managing bushfire fuels around homes. Combustible fuels directly adjacent to homes are susceptible to ignition due to falling embers which can subsequently destroy homes. Science shows that if it can burn it should not be within a metre and a half of a bushfire-prone home.

Future emergency warnings will likely be personalised and interactive. Research by Queensland University of Technology is assisting fire agencies to develop map-based warnings that communicate the likely spread of bushfires. Such advances will help communicate the growing number of unprecedented events for which communities have no historical benchmark.

Heatwaves are our biggest killer, with the old, very young, sick and pregnant being the most vulnerable. Community services can take a key role to support the most vulnerable to have plans to stay cool and to keep in touch to make sure they are safe on hot days.

Cyclone Alfred in early 2025 could have been much worse and was a wake-up call that Brisbane and Perth are exposed to damaging cyclones. Insurance losses were close to $1.5 billion dollars. Research by the Cyclone Testing Station at James Cook University highlighted deficiencies in building design on the Gold Coast that allowed water to penetrate homes and apartments, identifying opportunities to improve building codes.

Many Australian homes were built before modern building codes, meaning they are not specifically designed to withstand natural hazards. Adoption of home hardening measures can enhance resilience, for example homes on floodplains can be renovated with water resilient materials, in cyclone areas have their roofs strengthened, and guards and seals installed to prevent ember entry in bushfires.

Hardening of homes for natural hazards has been shown to have a positive economic return, and the Productivity Commission has recommended the development of a national strategy for housing resilience. Grants, subsidies, insurance discounts and low-interest loans, supported by transparent natural hazard risk information, can incentivise the implementation of hardening measures. Avoiding future housing developments in high-risk flood and bushfire-prone areas and adoption of heat-smart planning and building designs are a must.

There are opportunities to invest in flood mitigation infrastructure such as levees to protect communities as well as restoring vegetation within catchments. Where risks cannot be effectively reduced relocation of communities must be considered. Caravan parks with permanent populations are particularly vulnerable and must be considered a priority.

Some 65 per cent of flood deaths have been associated with vehicles in floodwater. More must be done than simply telling motorists not to drive through floodwater. We must adopt stronger engineering, warning and enforcement approaches to complement behaviour-change programs.

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Undoubtedly, lives have been saved this summer through enhancements in emergency management capabilities, but research finds our approach must transform if we are to be prepared for future disasters.

We have the evidence and expertise to think differently, and we must also embrace First Nations knowledge and adopt a whole-of-community approach if we are to be successful.

Summer is a long way from over. The challenge is urgent, and we must all be prepared for this summer and beyond.